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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and l🌠ike that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are 🍎influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundeslౠiga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation t🃏eam.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have ♔about the samꦏe conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. A♛verage 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are s🅰cored in a match. To be prꦫecise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather n🔥ot. 46 % of all wins are based upon a one💦-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of match🐲es result ins draw. By implication 75% of matches h🐎ave a winner!
Yes, but since the midd♔le of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 💯2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days a🐓bout 20% more goals are scored than on average𒊎. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is signific🤪antly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goౠalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative fꦕor the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team 🅠as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance lev𒈔el = goal difference that 🥂a team scores against an average opponent)
The c𒁏oincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the p🔴erformances of teams.
A football match is dominated🏅 by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalsc🔥oriไng opportunities would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal ꦺdifference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels fro෴m match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive s🌞eries. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, voiꦛd. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For t🍸hat reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant devia🌌tionꦆs from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the s🌟eason..
No. In fact only in half o🎉f the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion at the e🅘nd of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it s🥂tatistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is 𒐪enough for today, we will let you know another rime.