Your tip. Scientifically founded.
Calculated 100,000 times!
Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice 🌳but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundes🍎liga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bunꦗdesliga have about the same conve❀rsion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evide💖nce that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are s🍌cored in a𒉰 match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins are based 🧜upon a one-goal-margin𒁃.
No. Only about 25% of matches result in♑s draw. By ൲implication 75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s d💃istinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary:🌺 On the last two match days about 20% 𝔉more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected a✅mount of goals, on the other♓ hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more infor𝕴mative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated wit☂h their actual perform🍌ance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a teaꦛm does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performanওces of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. ๊Additionally the performance level oꦅf offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the dꦕifference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal difference is determined by effects of coincidenꦓce with 86% (m📖atch day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. 💛The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot,🐻 you got ꧅shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goal꧟scoring opportun🅺ities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8)💎 are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you ca꧃n come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion ൲at thꦺe end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The sci♍entist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically ༒the effect is under 10%.
Of cour🍸se we know! But it is enough for today, we will let you know another rime.